2007 Michigan Football Season Preview
It may have snuck up on me this year due to recent vacations and long hours at work, but Michigan football starts this weekend. Woohoo!!!
No drawn out season preview this year, but based on the limited reading I have done on the team this year, here is my take on the team.
Offense
One word. Amazing. This will be the best Michigan offense since 2000 when we had Henson, Terrell, Thomas, and 5 offensive lineman that started an NFL game including Hutchinson and Backus. In fact, this offense has much more talent at the skill positions than the 2000 team, just a weaker offensive line.
Chad Henne is the best Michigan QB I have ever seen. Yes, I think he is a better college QB than Michigan greats Tom Brady, Jim Harbaugh, and Elvis Grbac. Henne does not get much respect since he has not won bowl games or games against OSU, but he often plays well in these games, and he will hold every passing record at UM after this season. Throw in Mike Hart's heart, Jake Long's willingness to pass up the big bucks of the NFL, and Manningham's big play ability, and I really like the leaders of the offense.
The only potential downside to this offense is that Carr and O.C. Mike DeBord call a very conservative offensive game which could result in Michigan playing in more close games than desired. Given the defensive weakness this year, the offense must go into each game thinking that 40 points will be necessary to win.
Defense
As good as the 2000 offense was, the 2000 defense was pathetic. I hope I never see Michigan lose another game 54-51 in regulation time. Sadly, if any team can match that incompetence, it's the 2007 Michigan defense. This is a terrible defense. Woodley, Branch, Harris, and Hall are gone. With a much weaker front seven unable to hide the secondary weaknesses, Michigan will give up a lot of points this year on big plays. Brace yourself, Michigan fans. Regardless of how awesome Ron English is as a defensive coordinator, it will take a Belichick miracle to make this defense respectable.
Special Teams
We're going to miss Steve Breaston. I am having nightmares of my college days when I had a pit in my stomach every time Michigan was receiving a punt. Just thinking of Julius Curry or James Whitley fumbling punts every week has me freaking out about whichever unknown player will have the punt returning responsibility this year.
Oh yeah, and we have a new placekicker too. Anyone remember the year before Garret Rivas? Let's hope that never happens again.
On the bright side, we have Zoltan. If a punter ever had a chance to win the Heisman, it's Zoltan.
Despite my defensive and special teams concerns, I still think Michigan should have a good season, mainly because I just don't see many good teams in the Big Ten this year.
Here is my game-by-game prediction:
Game 1 - Appalachian State
A Division 1-AA opponent? Disgraceful. Why did college football add a 12th game if it was just going to be against a crappy school.
Believe it or not, the two-time defending Division 1-AA champs are not the easiest opponent on Michigan's schedule this year. That honor belongs to the lightly regarded 'Bye Week' (see Game 6 below). Michigan will try to win this game without running a single play other than the off-tackle run behind Jake Long. They will succeed, but the resulting final score will be much closer than you would expect.
Michigan 38, Appalachian State 13, Number of people able to watch the game on the Big Ten Network, 7
Game 2 - Oregon
This is one of the games that really concerns me. Oregon comes from a pass-happy conference. Michigan will not be able to stop these teams in 2007. As tempted as I am to think that Michigan could lose this game, everything I have read about Oregon indicates that they are not as good this year as they have been in past years.
Michigan 42, Oregon 24
Game 3 - Notre Dame
Notre Dame was not good when they came to Michigan and beat us two years ago. However, Charlie Weis knows how to pick apart a bad defense. That said, this Notre Dame team is probably as bad on paper as the one Michigan beat 38-0 four years ago, just better coached.
Michigan 38, Notre Dame 20
Game 4 - Penn State
Penn State was a mess on offense last year. I am not one of those who believe that Morelli will be better because he is a year older. However, the poor offense at PSU has always been offset by a stellar defense. Michigan won't win if the defense doesn't play well because Michigan's offense will not light it up on Penn State. This game scares me, and I think a special teams miscue will ultimately doom Michigan and give PSU the points they need to win. PSU finally breaks their losing streak to the Wolverines (and JoePa will celebrate by announcing his retirement after the season).
Penn State 23, Michigan 20
Game 5 - at Northwestern
No one wants to face an angry Michigan team.
Michigan 48, Northwestern 17
Game 6 - Bye Week
Like I said, this week will present less of a challenge than the season opener.
Michigan 45, Eastern Michigan 6
Game 7 - Purdue
Purdue returns to Michigan's schedule after a two-year hiatus. They are nowhere near as good as they were two years ago, but other than that, I really don't know anything about their team.
Michigan 40, Purdue 20
Game 8 - at Illinois
At Illinois in prime time. Brings back scary memories of the only football game I attended where I truly feared for my life (@Ill in 2000). This is not an easy place to play in primetime. Illinoise has sucked for years, but they are a team on the rise and should surprise some people this year. Throw in a mobile QB and this is a worrisome for Michigan. Michigan will enter the game as a 10 point favorite, but way too overconfident that this will not be a tough game. Illinois will cover the spread, and I think they could win.
Illinois 34, Michigan 30
Game 9 - Minnesota
No one wants to face an angry Michigan team.
Michigan 51, Minnesota 14
Game 10 - at Michigan State
Michigan State has a new coach, which will make it that much tougher for Michigan to walk in and win there this year. However, it's Michigan State. They mail it in every season after November 1st.
Michigan 33, Michigan State 20
Game 11 - at Wisconsin
Wisconsin is not as good as advertised this year. A new QB and a team whose record was disguised by a very easy schedule in 2006. They will not finish in the top 3 of the Big Ten this year, and a 4-4 or 5-3 conference record will not surprise me.
Michigan 27, Wisconsin 17
Game 12 - Ohio State
Even with two conference losses, Michigan could still be playing for a BCS bowl birth and possibly even a chance at the conference title. The conference is down this year, and no one will run the table. Ohio State does not have Troy Smith, who was the biggest factor in their last three games against Michigan. His departure will be enough for Michigan to end the losing streak against the cheating Buckeyes.
Michigan 33, Ohio State 24
Game 13 - Bowl Game
With a 10-2 record, Michigan might get an at-large BCS bid. However, Michigan's poor defense will be exposed once again in January in yet another bowl game loss.
Projected Final Record - 10-3
Projected Big Ten Standings
1. Penn State 7-1
2. Michigan 6-2
3. Ohio State 6-2
4. Wisconsin 5-3
5. Iowa 5-3
6. Illinois 4-4
7. Purdue 3-5
8. Michigan State 3-5
9. Indiana 3-5
10. Minnesota 1-7
11. Northwestern 1-7
No drawn out season preview this year, but based on the limited reading I have done on the team this year, here is my take on the team.
Offense
One word. Amazing. This will be the best Michigan offense since 2000 when we had Henson, Terrell, Thomas, and 5 offensive lineman that started an NFL game including Hutchinson and Backus. In fact, this offense has much more talent at the skill positions than the 2000 team, just a weaker offensive line.
Chad Henne is the best Michigan QB I have ever seen. Yes, I think he is a better college QB than Michigan greats Tom Brady, Jim Harbaugh, and Elvis Grbac. Henne does not get much respect since he has not won bowl games or games against OSU, but he often plays well in these games, and he will hold every passing record at UM after this season. Throw in Mike Hart's heart, Jake Long's willingness to pass up the big bucks of the NFL, and Manningham's big play ability, and I really like the leaders of the offense.
The only potential downside to this offense is that Carr and O.C. Mike DeBord call a very conservative offensive game which could result in Michigan playing in more close games than desired. Given the defensive weakness this year, the offense must go into each game thinking that 40 points will be necessary to win.
Defense
As good as the 2000 offense was, the 2000 defense was pathetic. I hope I never see Michigan lose another game 54-51 in regulation time. Sadly, if any team can match that incompetence, it's the 2007 Michigan defense. This is a terrible defense. Woodley, Branch, Harris, and Hall are gone. With a much weaker front seven unable to hide the secondary weaknesses, Michigan will give up a lot of points this year on big plays. Brace yourself, Michigan fans. Regardless of how awesome Ron English is as a defensive coordinator, it will take a Belichick miracle to make this defense respectable.
Special Teams
We're going to miss Steve Breaston. I am having nightmares of my college days when I had a pit in my stomach every time Michigan was receiving a punt. Just thinking of Julius Curry or James Whitley fumbling punts every week has me freaking out about whichever unknown player will have the punt returning responsibility this year.
Oh yeah, and we have a new placekicker too. Anyone remember the year before Garret Rivas? Let's hope that never happens again.
On the bright side, we have Zoltan. If a punter ever had a chance to win the Heisman, it's Zoltan.
Despite my defensive and special teams concerns, I still think Michigan should have a good season, mainly because I just don't see many good teams in the Big Ten this year.
Here is my game-by-game prediction:
Game 1 - Appalachian State
A Division 1-AA opponent? Disgraceful. Why did college football add a 12th game if it was just going to be against a crappy school.
Believe it or not, the two-time defending Division 1-AA champs are not the easiest opponent on Michigan's schedule this year. That honor belongs to the lightly regarded 'Bye Week' (see Game 6 below). Michigan will try to win this game without running a single play other than the off-tackle run behind Jake Long. They will succeed, but the resulting final score will be much closer than you would expect.
Michigan 38, Appalachian State 13, Number of people able to watch the game on the Big Ten Network, 7
Game 2 - Oregon
This is one of the games that really concerns me. Oregon comes from a pass-happy conference. Michigan will not be able to stop these teams in 2007. As tempted as I am to think that Michigan could lose this game, everything I have read about Oregon indicates that they are not as good this year as they have been in past years.
Michigan 42, Oregon 24
Game 3 - Notre Dame
Notre Dame was not good when they came to Michigan and beat us two years ago. However, Charlie Weis knows how to pick apart a bad defense. That said, this Notre Dame team is probably as bad on paper as the one Michigan beat 38-0 four years ago, just better coached.
Michigan 38, Notre Dame 20
Game 4 - Penn State
Penn State was a mess on offense last year. I am not one of those who believe that Morelli will be better because he is a year older. However, the poor offense at PSU has always been offset by a stellar defense. Michigan won't win if the defense doesn't play well because Michigan's offense will not light it up on Penn State. This game scares me, and I think a special teams miscue will ultimately doom Michigan and give PSU the points they need to win. PSU finally breaks their losing streak to the Wolverines (and JoePa will celebrate by announcing his retirement after the season).
Penn State 23, Michigan 20
Game 5 - at Northwestern
No one wants to face an angry Michigan team.
Michigan 48, Northwestern 17
Game 6 - Bye Week
Like I said, this week will present less of a challenge than the season opener.
Michigan 45, Eastern Michigan 6
Game 7 - Purdue
Purdue returns to Michigan's schedule after a two-year hiatus. They are nowhere near as good as they were two years ago, but other than that, I really don't know anything about their team.
Michigan 40, Purdue 20
Game 8 - at Illinois
At Illinois in prime time. Brings back scary memories of the only football game I attended where I truly feared for my life (@Ill in 2000). This is not an easy place to play in primetime. Illinoise has sucked for years, but they are a team on the rise and should surprise some people this year. Throw in a mobile QB and this is a worrisome for Michigan. Michigan will enter the game as a 10 point favorite, but way too overconfident that this will not be a tough game. Illinois will cover the spread, and I think they could win.
Illinois 34, Michigan 30
Game 9 - Minnesota
No one wants to face an angry Michigan team.
Michigan 51, Minnesota 14
Game 10 - at Michigan State
Michigan State has a new coach, which will make it that much tougher for Michigan to walk in and win there this year. However, it's Michigan State. They mail it in every season after November 1st.
Michigan 33, Michigan State 20
Game 11 - at Wisconsin
Wisconsin is not as good as advertised this year. A new QB and a team whose record was disguised by a very easy schedule in 2006. They will not finish in the top 3 of the Big Ten this year, and a 4-4 or 5-3 conference record will not surprise me.
Michigan 27, Wisconsin 17
Game 12 - Ohio State
Even with two conference losses, Michigan could still be playing for a BCS bowl birth and possibly even a chance at the conference title. The conference is down this year, and no one will run the table. Ohio State does not have Troy Smith, who was the biggest factor in their last three games against Michigan. His departure will be enough for Michigan to end the losing streak against the cheating Buckeyes.
Michigan 33, Ohio State 24
Game 13 - Bowl Game
With a 10-2 record, Michigan might get an at-large BCS bid. However, Michigan's poor defense will be exposed once again in January in yet another bowl game loss.
Projected Final Record - 10-3
Projected Big Ten Standings
1. Penn State 7-1
2. Michigan 6-2
3. Ohio State 6-2
4. Wisconsin 5-3
5. Iowa 5-3
6. Illinois 4-4
7. Purdue 3-5
8. Michigan State 3-5
9. Indiana 3-5
10. Minnesota 1-7
11. Northwestern 1-7
posted by GaryGinew at 8:32 PM
3 Comments:
What? You think we lose to Illinois??? Did I read that correctly? Every time I think you're the most gloom-and-doom Michigan fan I've ever met, G-dawg, you do yourself one worse with predictions like these. However, if I remember correctly, you were also worried about Notre Dame the infamous 38-0 year, so I'm going to go with my own prediction against Illinois, which is a W.
Very funny about the angry Michigan team bit, though.
I would love for your (and Herbie's) predictions to be accurate this year. I'll have a much better read on Penn State after going to Saturday's game against an actual I-A opponent.
This is the worst load of crap I've ever read in my life. I'm tempted to ban you from watching the Illinois game at my place. I'm tempted to ban you period. Predicting regular season losses - not a big fan, but I understand going for realism. You predicted a loss against an UNKNOWN OPPONENT. @#$@#$@P@#)%@#$)*#)#($*%#$%.
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