Michigan-Notre Dame Preview
I bet you are all expecting me to write about how Michigan is going to lose today. I could write about everything going against Michigan this weekend in South Bend. I'm sure FlyingV is itching for the opportunity to call me a bad Michigan fan as well.
I have a surprise for you. My Michigan-Notre Dam preview is about how Michigan could actually win! That's right. Michigan can beat Notre Dame in South Bend, regardless of everything that is going against Lloyd Carr and the Wolverines. Maybe it was reliving the classic 1994 victory (see most recent post), but I am actually excited about this game, NOT afraid.
Here are five reasons why Michigan can win this Saturday:
1 - Lloyd Carr is money in big games - Michigan plays much better against teams ranked in the top ten than they do against teams ranked 11-25 under Carr, probably because Carr knows he has to take more chances in order to win against the top ten teams. Michigan is also plays exceptionally well when they are the underdog in a game. The favored team always plays a little tighter in close games, especially when the favorite is at home.
2 - Michigan's Run game - Michigan has been running the football very well so far this year. Yes, it was against Vanderbilt and CMU, but it still is worth mentioning. Penn State rushed for a lot of yards against Notre Dame last week, and I think Michigan has a much better rushing offense than Penn State. Notre Dame's fantastic offense will not be nearly as effective if Michigan can run well and keep possession of the football for 35+ minutes. I think this is possible since Notre Dame's defense is not as good against the run as they are against the pass.
3 - Michigan's defensive front seven - Michigan has put together their best defensive line and linebacking corps in years. They are the strength of this year's defense. Woodley might have a huge game this weekend since he finally has competent teammates on the D-Line and will face fewer double teams against Notre Dame. Michigan's linebackers are also much faster this year with the emergence of Shawn Crable. It is so great to see that Burgess was demoted to the bench this year, because he is slow. The key is an aggressive defensive approach. The defensive backs are not good enough to cover the ND receivers, so the front seven must establish consistent pressure and not give Brady Quinn enough time to pick apart the Michigan secondary. Michigan might be prone to the big play with this approach, but the defense will also force turnovers if they can apply a lot of pressure. As long as Michigan's coaching staff uses an aggressive game plan on defense, Michigan can win.
4 - Notre Dame is overhyped - Notre Dame ends the season with a lower ranking than they started with as much as or more than any other team in recent history (though Michigan is up there as well). Notre Dame is getting a lot of hype after a 9-3 finish last year, but they haven't really been great in a long time. They whooped on Penn State last week, but I still content that Penn State is not very good this year. Notre Dame might not be as good as advertised.
5 - Favorite has historically underperformed in UM-ND series - Granted, the favorite in recent years has been Michigan, but ignore that for just a second. Notre Dame has not entered this game as the favorite in at least a decade, if not longer. Michigan has been ranked in the top ten going into the last 16 UM-ND games. Notre Dame has only been ranked in the top ten entering the UM-ND game once in the last 9 meetings. Michigan is 4-5 in those last 9 meetings and 6-9-1 in the last 16 meetings with Notre Dame. Clearly Michigan has not fared well as a favorite, and I expect them to feel a lot less pressure than Notre Dame this weekend. That's a good sign given how tight Michigan has played in their last 6 road openers (all losses).
The essential key for Michigan is taking the early lead. Michigan has struggled with the pass game and cannot be forced to resort to throwing the ball in order to come back against the Irish.
I will stop short of providing a score prediction, but I am confident that Michigan will cover the spread (+7).
Go Blue!
PS - Read this transcript of Charlie Weis's press conference this week. He definitely knows the Michigan team well, but he might be taking Michigan a little lightly this week.
I have a surprise for you. My Michigan-Notre Dam preview is about how Michigan could actually win! That's right. Michigan can beat Notre Dame in South Bend, regardless of everything that is going against Lloyd Carr and the Wolverines. Maybe it was reliving the classic 1994 victory (see most recent post), but I am actually excited about this game, NOT afraid.
Here are five reasons why Michigan can win this Saturday:
1 - Lloyd Carr is money in big games - Michigan plays much better against teams ranked in the top ten than they do against teams ranked 11-25 under Carr, probably because Carr knows he has to take more chances in order to win against the top ten teams. Michigan is also plays exceptionally well when they are the underdog in a game. The favored team always plays a little tighter in close games, especially when the favorite is at home.
2 - Michigan's Run game - Michigan has been running the football very well so far this year. Yes, it was against Vanderbilt and CMU, but it still is worth mentioning. Penn State rushed for a lot of yards against Notre Dame last week, and I think Michigan has a much better rushing offense than Penn State. Notre Dame's fantastic offense will not be nearly as effective if Michigan can run well and keep possession of the football for 35+ minutes. I think this is possible since Notre Dame's defense is not as good against the run as they are against the pass.
3 - Michigan's defensive front seven - Michigan has put together their best defensive line and linebacking corps in years. They are the strength of this year's defense. Woodley might have a huge game this weekend since he finally has competent teammates on the D-Line and will face fewer double teams against Notre Dame. Michigan's linebackers are also much faster this year with the emergence of Shawn Crable. It is so great to see that Burgess was demoted to the bench this year, because he is slow. The key is an aggressive defensive approach. The defensive backs are not good enough to cover the ND receivers, so the front seven must establish consistent pressure and not give Brady Quinn enough time to pick apart the Michigan secondary. Michigan might be prone to the big play with this approach, but the defense will also force turnovers if they can apply a lot of pressure. As long as Michigan's coaching staff uses an aggressive game plan on defense, Michigan can win.
4 - Notre Dame is overhyped - Notre Dame ends the season with a lower ranking than they started with as much as or more than any other team in recent history (though Michigan is up there as well). Notre Dame is getting a lot of hype after a 9-3 finish last year, but they haven't really been great in a long time. They whooped on Penn State last week, but I still content that Penn State is not very good this year. Notre Dame might not be as good as advertised.
5 - Favorite has historically underperformed in UM-ND series - Granted, the favorite in recent years has been Michigan, but ignore that for just a second. Notre Dame has not entered this game as the favorite in at least a decade, if not longer. Michigan has been ranked in the top ten going into the last 16 UM-ND games. Notre Dame has only been ranked in the top ten entering the UM-ND game once in the last 9 meetings. Michigan is 4-5 in those last 9 meetings and 6-9-1 in the last 16 meetings with Notre Dame. Clearly Michigan has not fared well as a favorite, and I expect them to feel a lot less pressure than Notre Dame this weekend. That's a good sign given how tight Michigan has played in their last 6 road openers (all losses).
The essential key for Michigan is taking the early lead. Michigan has struggled with the pass game and cannot be forced to resort to throwing the ball in order to come back against the Irish.
I will stop short of providing a score prediction, but I am confident that Michigan will cover the spread (+7).
Go Blue!
PS - Read this transcript of Charlie Weis's press conference this week. He definitely knows the Michigan team well, but he might be taking Michigan a little lightly this week.
posted by GaryGinew at 8:04 PM
2 Comments:
You think he's taking it lightly when he knows how much weight each of our freaking players has lost since last year? I don't know if he's really taking it lightly...but I sure hope he is!
Why no score prediction?
there's no score prediction because gary thinks we're going to lose. he thinks we'll cover the spread, yes, but he still thinks we're going to lose. I think he's afraid of all of us yelling at him.
Post a Comment
<< Home