College Football Preview, part 5

In the fifth and final installment of my college football season preview, I am providing a breakdown of the 2006 Michigan team as well as a game-by-game prediction for the 2006 Michigan Wolverines. Please keep your bitching about me "not being a real fan since I think Michigan won't go 12-0" to a minimum please, FlyingV.

Here is a brief rundown of each Michigan unit in 2006:

Offense
The offense played very well in 2005, especially considering the injuries that decimated the offensive line. With some luck on the injury front, the Michigan offense should be stellar in 2006. There are two solid running backs and some experienced receivers this year. Hopefully, Steve Breaston will learn to be more than just a kick returner in 2006. A better season from him and this unit is downright scary. The Achilles heel of this unit is QB depth. If Henne goes down, the offense is screwed. There is not a viable option at QB after Henne on this roster since backup QB Matt Gutierrez transferred after last season.

Defense
The defense played respectable well for the first 50 minutes of most games in 2005. However, this unit was never able to close out games. They were unable to hold two possession leads in each of the last two games of 2005 and their best 4th quarter defensive stand in a close game last year was when they held Iowa to a FG to force OT. This defense looks just as unimpressive, especially at LB. Hopefully Prescott Burgess learned to run faster than me in this offseason. The exciting change in 2006 is the departure of longtime defensive coordinator Jim Hermann. Maybe Ron English will figure out how to use his slow defensive players in a way that prevents mobile QBs from rushing for 150+ yards this year.

Special Teams
Michigan has turned around their special teams unit over the past 4 years. They were terrible in the late-90s early-2000s. However, this squad looks stellar. The kicking game should be good (although Garret Rivas cannot boot 50+yd field goals). The return game is always dangerous with Steve Breaston returning kicks. This group will win more games than it loses for Michigan in 2006.

Here is my game-by-game prediction:

Game 1 - Vanderbilt
At least this cupcake is from a good conference and not the MAC. However, Vanderbilt is just pathetic this year now that they have lost their phenom QB from last season. Michigan will score a lot of points on a bad defense. The true test is how the Michigan defense looks with a new defensive coordinator on the sidelines this year.

Michigan 45, Vanderbilt 20

Game 2 - Central Michigan
Michigan has never lost to a MAC team. The end.

Michigan 41, Central Michigan 13

Game 3 - at Notre Dame
Michigan has not won at Notre Dame since Gary Moeller was the coach and are 1-5-1 in their last seven trips to South Bend. Michigan has not won their first road game of the year since 1999 (@Syracuse). There is a lot of bad karma here. Notre Dame is also a better team with a better coach. It kills me to predict a Michigan loss here, but I just don't see how we can possibly win this game unless Henne throws for 350+ yards. I don't trust our defense to do the job.

Notre Dame 29, Michigan 17

Game 4 - Wisconsin
Michigan has only lost one Big Ten opener in the past 22 years. Unfortunately, that game was at Wisconsin last season. Michigan will be looking for revenge, and Wisconsin does not have enough firepower to win at Michigan this year. Lloyd Carr has fared quite well against Wisconsin during his tenure, and I think Michigan will welcome the new Wisconsin coach to Michigan Stadium by giving the Badgers a loss in the conference opener.

Michigan 24, Wisconsin 17

Game 5 - at Minnesota
This game scares me. Minnesota is not as good as last year now that their star RB Maroney is in the NFL. However, they run the ball very well, regardless of who is at RB. Michigan is on the road and their run defense has been putrid in recent years. This could be that inexplicable conference loss in 2006. Michigan always loses one of these crappy games each year, and this game appears to be the most likely fit. If Michigan is truly motivated to recapture the Little Brown Jug after losing it for the first time since the mid-1980s last year, then they will probably win. Although I am worried about this game, there is no excuse for this Minnesota team to beat Michigan. MinnesOta is nowhere near as talented as their past 3 teams.

Michigan 38, Minnesota 24

Game 6 - Michigan State
Michigan State has not won at Michigan since 1990. John L Smith has a bunch of 'L' against Michigan since he became the Spartan coach in 2003 (though all three losses were very close games). This Michigan State team is actually somewhat scary. However, Michigan will steal this game because of superior special teams play (MSU is incapable of making a field goal these days).

Michigan 27, Michigan State 21

Game 7 - at Penn State
Under the lights at Beaver Stadium, this game is getting pretty significant hype already. However, I just don't think Penn State is that good. They lost a lot of players on the O-Line and D-Line, which are always the hardest to replace. Also, they lost 14 starters from last year's team. Throw in a new QB that is not as mobile as Michael Robinson, and I see a team that will lose six games in 2006. Given that Penn State might be rocking if the Nittany Lions have less than 2 losses coming into this game, there is upset potential. However, I think Michigan guts out a tough victory in Happy Valley.

Michigan 24, Penn State 13

Game 8 - Iowa
This is going to be a huge game. Iowa has played Michigan very tough over the past four years. Kirk Ferentz is a great coach and usually outwits Lloyd Carr. Iowa returns a lot of players from last year's team, and have the tools and toughness to win a game in Ann Arbor. My prediction is that this game comes down to the last drive (or OT). Chad Henne's late game heroics steal this one.

Michigan 26, Iowa 24

Game 9 - Northwestern
Northwestern was a scary team last year, but with an untested QB running the show for a offensive scheme that depends heavily on QB plays/decision making, Michigan should have no trouble.

Michigan 34, Northwestern 14

Game 10 - Ball State
Michigan has never lost to a MAC team. The end.

Michigan 41, Ball State 13

Game 11 - at Indiana
A nice "bye" before Ohio State.

Michigan 44, Indiana 16

Game 12 - at Ohio State
Both teams will enter this game with 1 loss and undefeated in conference play. With the winner Pasadena bound, there will be plenty on the line in Columbus. Jim Tressel has gotten the best of Lloyd Carr since he became head coach, so Carr is under a lot of pressure this year. Ohio State's mobile QB Troy Smith will provide a major test for Ron English and his Michigan defense, especially given how well Smith has played against Michigan the past two seasons. Ohio State's defense is a lot weaker this year. Their front seven is not nearly as strong as they were last year, so Michigan definitely has a chance. This game will be close, and I think it will come down to turnovers. Given Michigan's track record in this game recently, I am not optimistic.

Ohio State 25, Michigan 20

Game 13 - Bowl Game
With a 10-2 record, Michigan might get an at-large BCS bid. However, this is not a BCS-worthy team. The only reason I think Michigan goes 10-2 is because the Big Ten is very weak in 2006. Regardless of where Michigan plays in January, they will lose and end the 2006 season with an improved 10-3 record.