UPDATE: MGoBlog summarized my thoughts much more eloquently and succinctly than what I have written below.
Link.
Michigan lost a crucial hockey game last night. In the CCHA title game against a powerful Notre Dame team, the heavily favored Irish stole a 2-1 game in which Michigan was much more dominant, but unable to finish against the nation's #1 defensive team. The impact of that game was huge on the NCAA tourney pairings. A win would have bumped Michigan up to #6 in the Pairwise rankings, which would have paired Michigan in a regional in Manchester, NH with struggling #1 seed UNH and an overrated ECACHL hockey team (St. Lawrence). Michigan would have made it to the frozen four with that group.
Instead, Michigan is heading west (again) in a regional containing Minnesota (again), the nation's #1 team (again). The region also contains North Dakota (again),
the nation's hottest team (again).
Sound familiar?
That loss yesterday to the Irish really stings. Michigan may be the higher seed, but they match up horribly with North Dakota in the first round. The Fighting Sioux killed us 5-1 last year in the first round of the tournament. Michigan has the best offense in the country and UND has shaky goaltending. However, Michigan has shaky goaltending and defensemen that love to give the puck to opposing players in front of our goal. Michigan's key to victory is to stay out of the box and NOT TURN THE PUCK OVER IN OUR OWN ZONE! The Fighting Sioux killed us with their awesome power play last year, and they will do it again if Michigan plays stupid (note to JMFJ - don't be dumb).
A win will match us up with Minnesota, provided that Air Force does not shock the world like Holy Cross did last year. Minnesota beat us 8-2 this year. 8-2!! Minnesota has struggled to a 11-8 record since mid-January after ending their
22 game unbeaten stretch earlier this year, but they are still awesome. Just flat out awesome. And they have owned Michigan since 2000.
The Manchester, NH regional sort of sucks. BC is a great team and I'd love to watch them live next weekend, but I don't think any of the three games will be very close, and BC's "fans" suck. UNH plays a boring, defensive style of hockey, and UNH's fans are not very fun either. I think I'm staying in CT next weekend given these pairings and watch the other games on TV. Bummer all around. :( I wish I could have seen Michigan, Boston U, or North Dakota on the east coast this weekend.
So what do I think will happen? Here is my bracket. The tournament is more open than normal this year. There are some 2 and 3 seeds capable of making some noise this year. The hottest teams in the country down the stretch are BC, North Dakota, Notre Dame, and UMass. Only Notre Dame is a #1 seed.
Grand Rapids, MI
#1 Notre Dame crushes #4 Alabama-Huntsville 5-0
#2 Boston U beats #3 Michigan State 1-0
#1 Notre Dame beats #2 Boston U 3-1
Rochester, NY
#1 Clarkson beats #4 UMass 4-3 (OT)
#2 St. Cloud State beats #3 Maine 4-2
#2 St. Cloud State beats #1 Clarkson 4-3 (OT)
Manchester, NH
#1 New Hampshire beats #4 Miami 4-1
#2 Boston College beats #3 St. Lawrence 6-2
#2 Boston College beats #1 New Hampshire 5-2
Denver, CO
#1 Minnesota beats #4 Air Force 9-2
#3 North Dakota beats #2 Michigan 6-3
#3 North Dakota beats #1 Minesota 4-3 (2OT) - will be the best game of the tournament
Frozen Four
North Dakota beats St. Cloud State 5-2
Notre Dame beats Boston College 4-2
North Dakota beats Notre Dame 4-1
A 3 seed winning it all may be a reach given past history, but the Fighting Sioux are scary good and on fire since a horrible first two months of the season.