In the fourth and final chapter of my riveting posts on how to get richer, I will discuss how to research mutual funds and stocks as well as provide “forward looking comments” about what I think will happen in the market in the next year. Please note that I am by no means an expert and could be completely wrong in my prediction.
Researching Funds and Stocks
There are great resources available to research mutual funds. Almost all public libraries should have Morningstar publications in their reference area. The Morningstar publication researches mutual funds across all industries and provides ratings based on a variety of factors including past performance, current investment manager (have they done well with other mutual funds in the past), expense loads, largest holdings in the fund, and investment strategy (bonds vs. equities, large vs. small, etc). Although they won’t review every mutual fund available to you, they will research many of the funds available through more common brokerage firms. These funds will get reviewed and rated four times per year. Morningstar tends to provide very solid ratings, but the ratings can change quickly if a fund changes investment managers or if it becomes too large. If you buy a fund based on a Morningstar rating, make sure you keep up with any significant rating change and move out of that fund if necessary. I once purchased a five-star fund that became a one-star fund in less than two years due to fund size, investment strategy (invested heavily in tech stocks at a bad time), and an investment manager change. I should have gotten out of the fund when the ratings started to plummet and I would have saved some money. I currently review the Morningstar ratings of my mutual funds 2-3 times per year.
Note that index funds are often only given three stars (out of five), but that does not make them a poor pick. Just make sure that your are looking for a fund that truly matches the index as promises and that it provides a low expense load since there is not as much trading involved with an index fund.
If you tend to stick to mutual funds offered by the brokerage firm you invest your money with (i.e., Fidelity), you can often find good information about the mutual fund on their website. You can look at the fund prospectus and get some good information about past performance and current investment strategy.
There are a million different ways to research individual stocks. You could always look for analyst reports produced by analysts from Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, etc. However, these are not always easy to find and tend to be especially bullish, especially if their company is doing investment-banking work for the company they are researching. I use a publication called Valueline, which is also available in the reference section at most local libraries. Valueline researches just about every legitimate stock available on an American stock exchange once every three months. There is a ton of statistical information about each stock they review (past performance of stock, company earnings, dividend history, etc) as well as performance and safety rankings in the near and long-term. Their website does a good job explaining the information provided in a stock report as well as provide some examples of current reports, so you may want to check out their website before going to the library and looking at this reference tool. I use this publication to try to identify stocks that have a strong 3-5 year potential return with as little risk as possible (i.e., low beta for the stock). However, I make sure I can find at least a one and preferably two other resources that support an individual stock before I will put any money into it. I review the Valueline rankings for each stock I currently own about 3-4 times per year at the local public library. I might look for new stocks to purchase at the same time, but I don’t plan to move into any new individual stocks in the near future.
“Forward Looking Comments”I am quite skeptical of the near-term outlook for the U.S. stock market. The yield curve is currently “inverted”. What that means is that short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. You would expect long-term interest rates to be higher in general because there are more risks when you invest over a longer time horizon. The last five recessions in the U.S. were preceded by an inverted yield curve (though an inverted yield curve is not always followed by a recession). While I do not necessarily think there will be a recession (and a declining stock market), I think the stock market will be very choppy and probably provide overall returns close to 0% in the next 12-18 months. However, some industries could perform quite well in the next year.
Because of the inverted yield curve, I plan to hold more in short-term investments over the next year than usual (at the expense of what I would normally hold in stocks). A short-term interest rate around 5% is quite attractive in my opinion, especially since there is very little risk involved. I’ll happily take 5% when I am skeptical of the risk and potential returns available in the stock market in the near future. However, by no means do I recommend moving entirely (or even mostly) out of stocks to take advantage of short-term interest rates.
As for what I think will happen in some of the major industries, I really like stocks that specialize in medical technologies. The baby boomer generation is starting to turn 60. I think that consumer spending on medical procedures will increase substantially in the near future. There will be tremendous demand for improved technology, so I think this is a great area to invest in. This does not necessarily include medical insurance companies, though the medical insurers have performed quite well lately. Another industry I like in the near future is pharmaceuticals and the companies that distribute prescription drugs since older people typically utilize more prescription drugs than younger people.
As for what I do not like in the near future, stay away from real estate, home building, and union influenced industries (airline, auto, manufacturing). I believe the real estate market is starting to cool off, as evidenced by housing prices starting to moderate, longer list-to-sell times, and rising interest rates (high mortgage rates). This is why I am waiting 1-2 years to buy a house. I think prices may fall across the U.S. except for areas where the baby boomers will move after retiring. Home building will slow down for similar reasons. As for union influenced industries, we are slowly noticing a crippling of long-time mainstays like the legacy airline companies (Northwest, Delta, etc…but not Southwest) and U.S. auto companies due to legacy benefits promised through union negotiations. The companies that negotiated these deals gave away a lot more than they realized in the past and did a poor job funding these promised benefits. These benefits are crippling the union influenced industries now that much of the workforce is starting to retire and collect pensions. Some of the manufacturing industries (steel, etc) will probably be the next to fall victim to the cost of pension benefits. There will be many more bankruptcies in these areas in the next few years, so you should look to avoid these stocks as well as mutual funds that are heavily invested in these industries.
I can’t think of much else to pass along. I hope all of you found these posts helpful. Feel free to ask any further questions you have!